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防务与经改 安倍鱼与熊掌难得兼【s10比赛压注】

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will this week push ahead with plans to loosen rules governing the military, even as analysts warn this could squander political capital needed to pursue tough economic reforms.日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)本周将实行多项计划,限制有关军事的法规——尽管分析师警告说道此举或消耗安倍的政治资本,而这些政治资本又是他实行艰苦的经济改革所需的。The military reform, a significant shift in Japan’s pacifist outlook, is just one piece of legislation scheduled for approval this summer.这次军事改革虽然只牵涉到要在今年夏天通过的一项法律,毕竟对日本和平前景的一次根本性改变。Parliament normally closes in June but, according to political analysts, Mr Abe is set to prolong the current session into August as he pursues economic reform. The summer of legislation will be crucial for the prime minister’s Abenomics stimulus, which is aimed at ending 20 years of on-and-off deflation and restoring the country to sustainable growth.日本议会一般来说不会在6月份常委会。然而根据政治分析人士的众说纷纭,由于要积极开展经济改革,安倍不会把目前的会期缩短到8月份。

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对于安倍的“安倍经济学”(Abenomics)经济性刺激措施来说,今年夏天的法律至关重要。安倍实行安倍经济学的目的,是为了完结日本20年内不时经常出现的通缩,令其日本经济完全恢复可持续快速增长。But if Mr Abe sacrifices too much political capital on the security changes, it could threaten his ability to pass structural economic reforms — the so-called “third arrow” of Abenomics.然而,如果安倍壮烈牺牲过于多政治资本用作防务改革,可能会威胁到安倍令其结构性经济改革措施(即所谓安倍经济学“第三只箭”)在议会通过的能力。

“This could well lead to a 10 percentage point fall in the approval rating for the Abe cabinet,” said Takao Toshikawa, editor of the political newsletter Tokyo Insideline.东京《内幕》(Insideline)杂志主编岁川隆雄(Takao Toshikawa)回应:“这很有可能造成安倍内阁的支持率上升10个百分点。”The ruling Liberal Democratic party and its Komeito coalition partner signed off on the package of security bills on Monday. They are set for cabinet approval on Thursday and could reach parliament by Friday.周一,日本执政党自民党(LDP)及其盟友公明党(Komeito)签订了一系列防务法案。这些法案将在周四由内阁审核通过,并有可能在周五递交议会。

The security bills will put into effect a new US-Japan defence agreement and last summer’s reinterpretation of Japan’s pacifist constitution by Mr Abe. They are based on the principle that Japan can and should fight to protect its allies, rather than merely fend off direct attacks on its territory.这些防务法案将实施美日新的防务协议,以及安倍去年夏天对日本和平宪法的新的说明。它们的出发点,是日本需要、也应当为维护其盟国登陆作战,而不是意味着抵挡对其领土的必要攻击。One bill creates a framework for Japan’s military to provide logistical support for multinational peacekeeping forces. Another revises ten different laws governing Japan’s military and its response to armed attacks.其中一个法案为日本军方向多国维和部队获取后勤反对划界了框架。还有一个法案则对十条约束日本军队及其对武装攻击的对此方式的法律做到了改动。

The security changes are unpopular with the public. A recent poll for JNN showed 46 per cent of the public against the changes compared with 36 per cent in favour. That may get worse as the measures go through parliament.公众对这次防务改革并不青睐。最近,日本新闻网(JNN)的一次民调表明,46%的公众赞成这次改革,反对这次改革的则只有36%。随着这些改革措施转入议会辩论阶段,公众的支持率可能会更进一步上升。

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“Opposition parties will likely leverage public sentiment to prolong the debate,” said Tobias Harris, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence.特尼欧情报公司(Teneo Intelligence)分析师托拜厄斯哈里斯(Tobias Harris)回应:“反对党很可能会利用公众情绪,将争辩推迟下去。”Mr Abe’s approval ratings are hovering above 50 per cent and he has generally moved cautiously on reforms in order to keep it there. He has tried to show the public he is prioritising the economy rather than his own goal of security and constitutional reform.目前,安倍的支持率保持在50%以上。

为保证支持率恒定,安倍在行动时一般来说不会十分小心。他企图向公众证明,他把经济放在了首位,而不是自己在防务和宪法改革方面的目标。But after a strong LDP performance in April’s local elections, Mr Abe has a breathing space before his own re-election as party leader in September, and then upper house elections next year. That makes it one of the best opportunities he will have to pass legislation to reform the economy.不过,4月份自民党在地方议会选举中的出众展现出,为安倍夺得了一段扭转局势时间,9月份安倍才不会再度竞选自民党领导人,接着不会在明年举办众议院议会选举。这也沦为了安倍通过经济改革法律的最佳机遇期之一。

Attacked in parliament for telling the US Congress he would pass the law this summer before submitting it to the legislature, Mr Abe said he had been signalling his intention since last year. “In no way is this contempt for parliament,” he said.在日本议会,有人批评安倍不应在将法案递交立法机关之前,就在美国国会回应不会通过这一法案。安倍回应,他从去年起就仍然在传达他的意图。他说道:“这对议会没任何不孝之意。”Mr Toshikawa said the prime minister would try to push a series of less popular economic measures, such as agricultural and labour market reform, through parliament during the next few months on top of the security legislation.岁川隆雄回应,今后几个月里,除了防务方面的法律,安倍还不会企图向议会明确提出一系列不过于热门的经济措施议案,比如农业及低收入市场改革措施。

Mr Abe will hope the sense of economic momentum from a rising stock market sustains his support. He could then turn to more popular areas of policy in the autumn, such as measures to support families, and seek to rebuild his popularity with the public.安倍期望,大大上升的股市促成的经济悲观情绪,能保持寄居他的支持率。接着,他可能会在秋天改向更加热门的政策领域——比如反对家庭的措施,并企图修复在公众中的人气。

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