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能源存储不再遥不可及 Energy storage is no longer just hot air_s10比赛压注

s10比赛压注_Of the technical advances transforming the energy business, none is potentially more important than storage. Used on a sufficient scale, it could make heat and light available to those living in subsistence conditions and radically alter the world’s energy mix.在转变能源业的技术变革中,有可能没哪一项比能源存储更加最重要的了。在应用于规模充足大的情况下,这项技术需要为那些只得为生的人获取光和热,并彻底转变世界能源结构。But it is important to demolish two myths. First, the technological advances are not about to transform the energy system to the point where a large proportion of consumers defect from existing distribution systems. Second, it does not require a dramatic breakthrough to become economic.但驳倒两个神话很最重要。

首先,技术变革对能源体系的转变,并会超过使大部分消费者弃用现有能源输配体系的地步。其次,我们并不需要获得爆炸式的突破就能使能源存储技术不具备经济可行性。On the first, by far the most likely next step is the integration of storage mechanisms into existing grids and other distribution systems in ways that manage peak loads and thus contribute to reducing the necessary generating capacity.关于前者,最有可能的下一步发展是使能源存储机制带入现有输配网和其他输配系统,以管理高峰负荷,从而有助增加适当的能源生产能力。

On the second, the story is one of gradualism. The core technologies are known and are advancing. Some are already commercially competitive; you are probably reading this on a computer that holds power for much longer than was possible only a decade ago. There could well be developments that would change the entire energy system but a eureka moment is not necessary.关于后者,则要认识到技术变革的渐进性。能源存储的核心技术早已为人所知,也正在获得进展。

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一些技术早已享有了商业竞争力;你也许正在用一台电脑读者这篇文章,这台电脑的续航时间要比十年前有可能超过的水平长得多。也许不会经常出现一些转变整个能源体系的技术发展,但爆炸性突破并非必不可少。Moody’s notes battery costs have fallen 50 per cent in the past five years. Lazard reports that industry expects a further significant fall in the next five years; and that, if projections are accurate, “some energy storage technologies may be positioned to displace a significant portion of future gas-fired generation capacity in particular as a replacement for peaking gas turbine facilities”.据穆迪(Moody’s)报告,过去5年电池的成本上升了50%。

Lazard报告,行业人士预计接下来5年电池成本还不会更进一步明显上升;并且,如果涉及预测是精确的,“一些能源存储技术有可能代替未来非常一部分燃气发电生产能力,特别是在是代替目前急遽减少的燃气轮机设备”。This suggests advances in storage could rapidly overturn established business models. Many of the technologies already have a strong industrial base, which is helping to reduce production costs. Many more are still at an early stage of commercialisation, building on research in universities worldwide.这指出,能源存储技术的变革有可能很快夺权即成商业模式。

许多存储技术早已享有实力雄厚的工业基础,这有助增加生产成本。还有更加多存储技术在世界各地大学的研究基础上发展,还正处于商业化的初期阶段。There are several storage technologies, each with particular applications. Pumped hydro systems enable us to manage the use of flows of water. Batteries can balance power loads and help manage the challenges of energy supplies that are intermittent. There are also uses at the production and at the consumption end of the supply chain.有几种能源存储技术,每一种都有特定的用途。抽水机蓄能系统让我们可以管理对水流的利用。

电池需要均衡能源负荷,有助处置停歇式的能源供应。还有用作能源生产和能源供应链消费端的技术。

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Some techniques, such as pumping water, have been used for centuries. Others, such as lithium ion, are not yet commercially viable, but the pace of improvement in costs is impressive.人们对一些技术的用于宽约数个世纪,比如抽水机。其他一些技术还不具备商业可行性,但成本提高方面的进展步伐令人印象深刻印象,比如锂离子。

Storage can be used with any form of supply, from coal to wind, and for any purpose from transport to heating. It improves efficiency by allowing consumers to use energy when they want rather than only at the moment of production. Economically, the greatest impact and the most significant benefits will accrue to the renewables sector, where a greater proportion of supply is wasted and where intermittency forces users into substantial back-up costs.能源存储技术可被用作从煤炭到风能的任何形式的能源供应,也可以用作从交通到暖气的任何目的。通过能源存储技术,消费者可以在必须的时候用于能源,而非只在能源生产出来的时候用于能源,从而提升能效。经济上,可再生能源领域受到的影响仅次于,获得的益处也最多。在该领域,能源供给的浪费比例更大,能源供给的间断性还被迫用户忍受高昂的可用能源成本。

Technological advances, along with falling costs, promise to make solar the power source of choice in the 21st century. If governments want to decarbonise the economy it is hard to think of a better use for public money and subsidies than researching storage.技术的变革和成本的上升未来将会使太阳能沦为21世纪的能源自由选择。如果政府期望使经济脱碳,很难想起有什么比能源存储技术研究更加合适投放公共资金和补贴了。The vital point is that storage is growing cheaper at a rate likely to challenge at least part of the existing energy system within five years. The conventional alternatives under threat from this sort of competition start with gas turbines but extend to expensive plans to upgrade transmission lines and distribution systems.关键的一点是,能源存储技术的成本正在较慢减少,也许能在5年内挑战最少部分现有技术的地位。

对于这类竞争,受到威胁的传统替代方案不仅还包括燃气轮机,还包括传输线和输配体系升级这样便宜的方案。When serious and objective financial institutions start saying such things, investors and companies involved in the old energy economy would be foolish not to take notice of the mounting evidence that storage technology is the next big shift in the energy business.坦率和客观的金融机构早已开始谈论这类事情,更加多的证据指出能源存储技术将是能源行业的下一个根本性改变,参予原有能源经济的投资者和企业如果不留意这一点将是可笑的。。

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